How could CO2 emissions around the world look in ten years time?
Climate change is an unavoidable problem, with the impact already being seen in extreme weather events right around the world and the primary driver of global warming is the high levels of CO2 emissions being produced.
Emissions have been steadily on the rise for many years and governments are urgently trying to put plans in place to drastically cut their emissions before it’s too late.
The level of emissions produced vary from one country to another, so we’ve decided to take a look at how they’ve changed over the years and use this to predict how they could look by 2032, in ten years’ time.
For each country, we took the annual emissions for both 1959 and 2019 (the most recent year for which data was available), calculated the average annual rate of change, and applied this to each year going forward to see how they could look in 2032.
The countries that have seen emissions increase the most
The countries that have cut emissions the most
Projecting emissions around the world
The countries with the lowest estimated 2032 emissions
The countries with the highest estimated 2032 emissions
All emissions data sourced from the ICOS data supplement to the Global Carbon Budget 2020 (Friedlingstein et al. 2020) and have been converted from million tonnes of carbon to million tonnes of CO2.
To estimate the 2032 emissions for each country, we took the level of emissions in 1959 and in 2019 (the most recent year for which data is available) and calculated the average annual growth rate over this period.
We then applied this growth rate to the 2019 emissions figure to estimate the future emissions for future years, up to 2032.
Countries with no emissions data were omitted, as were countries with a value of 0 for their 1959 emissions, as it was not possible to calculate an average rate of increase for these countries.