2032 Emissions
How could CO2 emissions around the world look in ten years time?
Climate change is an unavoidable problem, with the impact already being seen in extreme weather events right around the world and the primary driver of global warming is the high levels of CO2 emissions being produced.
Emissions have been steadily on the rise for many years and governments are urgently trying to put plans in place to drastically cut their emissions before it’s too late.
The level of emissions produced vary from one country to another, so we’ve decided to take a look at how they’ve changed over the years and use this to predict how they could look by 2032, in ten years’ time.
For each country, we took the annual emissions for both 1959 and 2019 (the most recent year for which data was available), calculated the average annual rate of change, and applied this to each year going forward to see how they could look in 2032.
The countries that have seen emissions increase the most
Key
1959 Emissions
2019 Emissions
Annual change
Estimated 2032 Emissions
1
Saudi Arabia
3.7 MtCO2
582.6 MtCO2
8.66%
1,238.8MtCO2
By far the country that has seen its emissions increase the most in the last 60 years is Saudi Arabia, going up from just 3.7 MtCO2 to 582.6 MtCO2, an increase that would take the country’s emissions to 1,238.8 MtCO2 by 2032.
The rapid increase in emissions can be attributed to the growth of the oil industry in the country, which is the second-largest in the world.
2
Thailand
3.7 MtCO2
289.5 MtCO2
7.43%
568.9MtCO2
Thailand has seen its emissions grow by 7.43% per year over the past 60 years, which would mean that they would hit 568.9 MtCO2 by this rate by 2032.
The country has seen its economy and population grow considerably in the same period, with vehicles and factories contributing heavily to air pollution.
3
Malaysia
3.7 MtCO2
249.2 MtCO2
7.16%
481.1MtCO2
Another Southeast Asian nation is in third place, with Malaysia having seen its emissions increase by 7.26% per year over the past 60 years.
As with Thailand, Malaysia is a developing country, making it difficult to keep emissions in check, and if they continue at the same rate, they could hit 481.1 MtCO2 by 2032.
The countries that have cut emissions the most
Key
1959 Emissions
2019 Emissions
Annual change
Estimated 2032 Emissions
1
Curaçao
11 MtCO2
3.7 MtCO2
-1.78%
2.8MtCO2
Only five of the 93 nations for which data was available actually saw their emissions decrease in the last 60 years, with the Caribbean island of Curaçao seeing the biggest decrease, at -1.78% per year.
While its overall emissions are fairly low, the country has long had one of the highest emissions per capita due to the long-term presence of the Isla Oil Refinery on the island. If emissions continue to fall at that rate, they will have shrunk to 2.8 MtCO2 by 2032.
2
Moldova
11 MtCO2
7.3 MtCO2
-0.66%
6.7MtCO2
Moldova’s emissions have fallen by an average of 0.66% over the last 60 years, meaning that if they continue to do so at the same rate, they’ll have fallen to 6.7 MtCO2 by 2032.
As with many former Soviet states, the CO2 emissions in Moldova started to fall drastically after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, although have seemingly started to creep up again in recent years.
3
United Kingdom
545.9 MtCO2
370.1 MtCO2
-0.64%
339.5MtCO2
While it’s amongst the countries with the highest emissions, the UK was actually one of the few that has seen its emissions fall in the last 60 years, from 545.9 MtCO2 in 1959 to 370.1 MtCO2 in 2019.
The UK government has set a target of reaching ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050, so a lot more still needs to be done to ensure that the country meets that target.
Projecting emissions around the world
|
|
Country |
1959 emissions (MtCO2) |
2019 emissions (MtCO2) |
Annual change |
Estimated 2032 emissions (MtCO2) |
|---|
The countries with the lowest estimated 2032 emissions
1
Curaçao
2.8 MtCO2
Estimated 2032 emissions
As well as being the country that has cut its emissions the most since 1959, Curaçao is also the nation that has the lowest predicted emissions by 2032, at just 2.8 MtCO2.
While its emissions are low on a global scale, Curaçao has traditionally had a high level of emissions per capita, although it appears to be making an effort to reduce these in recent years.
2
Democratic Republic of the Congo
3.7 MtCO2
Estimated 2032 emissions
The nation with the second-lowest estimated emissions by 2032 is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, at 3.7 MtCO2.
The DRC is home to the second-largest tropical rainforest in the world, which acts as a carbon sink, although deforestation is a major issue in the area, with developed nations looking to offset their own emissions by paying countries such as the DRC to plant new trees and conserve their forests.
3
Moldova
6.7 MtCO2
Estimated 2032 emissions
Moldova was the nation that has cut its emissions the second quickest since 1959 and has the third-lowest estimated emissions for 2032, with 6.7 MtCO2.
After years of industrial development with no emissions controls up until the early 90s, Moldova’s emissions have drastically reduced in recent years.
The countries with the highest estimated 2032 emissions
1
China
16,038.7 MtCO2
Estimated 2032 emissions
With an average annual increase of 4.43% in its emissions, China would be on course for emissions of over 16,000 MtCO2 by 2032, which is more than the next five countries combined.
In fact, these emissions would account for 32% of those of all the countries for which data is available.
2
United States
5,993.6 MtCO2
Estimated 2032 emissions
The country with the second-highest estimated emissions of 5,993.6 MtCO2 was the US, which is, of course, one of the most developed countries in the world, so the fact that it produces so much CO2 is little surprise.
It’s also one of the largest countries in the world, with thousands of domestic flights taking place in the country each day, which of course contributes significantly to emissions.
3
India
4,470 MtCO2
Estimated 2032 emissions
While its current emissions are some way behind those of the US, if they continue to grow at the average annual rate of 5.45%, they’re estimated to hit 4,470 MtCO2 by 2032.
In recent weeks India has notably rejected calls to implement a net-zero target, arguing that more industrialized countries should shoulder a greater share of the burden.
Methodology
All emissions data sourced from the ICOS data supplement to the Global Carbon Budget 2020 (Friedlingstein et al. 2020) and have been converted from million tonnes of carbon to million tonnes of CO2.
To estimate the 2032 emissions for each country, we took the level of emissions in 1959 and in 2019 (the most recent year for which data is available) and calculated the average annual growth rate over this period.
We then applied this growth rate to the 2019 emissions figure to estimate the future emissions for future years, up to 2032.
Countries with no emissions data were omitted, as were countries with a value of 0 for their 1959 emissions, as it was not possible to calculate an average rate of increase for these countries.
